A QUEDA DO IMPERIO :

L.E.A.P 2020 - Laboratoire Europeén d'Antecipation Politique.
G.E.A.B. nr. 51 - Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin.
O ano impiedoso, 2011: são 17 fatores em alta, e 15 em baixa.
EM TENDÊNCIA DE ALTA:
1. The bankruptcy of US States and local authorities. 2. US political instability. 3. Euroland’s fiscal, economic and financial integration. 4. Gold’s ongoing return to the international monetary system. 5. An acceleration of the Yuan’s internationalization. 6. Unemployment and social turbulence. 7. Rising strength of the rationale of « geopolitical blocs ». 8. The explosion of the US Treasury Bond bubble and Western sovereign debt. 9. Social security systems: key policy challenges in the whole world. 10. US interventionism in Latin America. 11. The rise of the Greens in Germany and the National Front in France. 12. Inflation. 13. The rise in interest rates. 14. The Fed « attacks » (and the fall of the Dollar wall). 15. The international importance of the BRIC countries. 16.  Forms of financial, monetary and commercial protection in the currency war. 17. The downfall of pro-Western Arab regimes.
EM TENDÊNCIA DE BAIXA :
1. The world recovery. 2. The G20’s ability to reform the international monetary system. 3. US leadership. 4. The « Euro crisis ». 5. The Chinese and German economic miracles. 6. NATO cohesion in Afghanistan. 7. Obama, Sarkozy and Berlusconi. 8. Multiculturalism in Europe. 9. The value of Banks. 10. Increases in wages and pensions in developed countries. 11. The value of financial investments. 12. Quantitative Easing as a solution to the crisis. 13. The saving of the United Kingdom and the Cameron/Clegg duet. 14. Western household consumption. 15. Real estate prices