Ocidente: depressão 2008-2013 se agrava até 2020, é fundo do poço. Daí são 20 anos só em retomada.
Theories vary widely among both market analysts and academics as to the expected impact of this most recent “winter” phase. Many believe Western debt has come to a head thanks to cheap credit that was enabled at the expense of the currencies we use. When a full-blown winter hits, the old currencies are expected to be purged and something new to emerge. As Currency Wars author James Rickards predicts, that could be a new paper money configuration, a type of gold standard or complete chaos. Suffice it to say that holding some of the yellow metal during this “winter season” would be prudent. Something interesting seems to be taking place… the most recent cycle, beginning around 1950, seems to be a bit longer. The stock market collapse of 2000 seems to be the end of the autumn phase of the 1990s, when overconfidence, credit binging and a sense of invincibility permeated stock markets. Winter then began. What is not clear is how long this winter will last. See the chart below:
Christopher M. Quigley, the Irish author, investment adviser and founder of Wealthbuilder.ie is predicting a depression for the next seven years… Long K cycles have nearly a thousand years of supporting evidence. If we accept the fact that most winters in K cycles last 20 years (as outlined in the chart above), this would indicate that we are about halfway through the Kondratieff winter that commenced in the year 2000. Thus, in all probability, we will be moving from a “recession” to a “depression” phase in the cycle about the year 2013, and it should last until approximately 2017–2020. Quigley believes that the winter phase may be stretching out longer than it should because economists have misdiagnosed the problem. “World bankers, if they were properly versed in their craft, would realize that Kondratiev’s heroism has given them the understanding they require to correctly comprehend and deal with the crisis,” Quigley claims. “However, instead of seeing ‘it’ as an acceptable development based on the natural result of technological stagnation, they have panicked and misdiagnosed it as a credit/monetary problem. Thus, the epiphany of truth will only finally dawn when the both the Fed and the ECB go bust, and as every financial dog on Wall Street knows, this is not a matter of ‘if,’ but ‘when.’”
