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Strat Risks - 24 Feb 2012 - clique aqui .
Rússia, candidato Zhirinovksi: "3a Guerra Mundial começa em poucos meses".

The Russian presidential candidate, the LDPR leader Vladimir Zhirinovski stated that in summer World War III will start. “As soon as they crush Syria, Iran will be the next. Azerbaijan will take advantage and try to recapture Karabakh. Armenia will counteract. Turkey will support Azerbaijan. Here’s how our country can be drawn into a war in the summer of 2012,” he said. Besides, there are already opinions of experts, mainly from Armenia and Russia, stating that the U.S. “agreed” with Azerbaijan to “give” it Karabakh in return for support to action on Iraq. Despite a really great possibility of a blow in the region, it is evident that the situation is under control and there are at least two factors which indicate that war in Karabakh is not inevitable. The first factor is that so far no conflict or war where the U.S. was involved or controlled it, spilt on to the neighbor countries. The feeling is that special mechanisms were used to localize the military actions in the given country –be it Serbia, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya or else. They said that the war in Libya (or Iraq) would detonate World War III involving the entire Middle East but the war started and ended within one country. Certainly, the point is not the U.S. being right or wrong in its decisions to intervene in different countries but the mechanism which keeps neighbor countries intact in the period of hostilities. The ongoing events in Syria are also a proof to this. Despite forecasts, the conflict has not spilt on the neighboring countries. The only exception so far has been the Russian-Georgian war when the actions went on in two countries but this is a different story with different purposes. In this regard, it seems that even if a conflict between Iran and the West or Israel starts, it will hardly spill on the neighboring countries. Although experts hope it will be possible to avoid the conflict.