Europa, dominós vão caindo.
Próximo, Eslovênia já rebaixada.
LONDON, May 17 (Fitch) Fitch Ratings has downgraded Slovenia's Long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) to 'BBB+' from 'A-'. The Outlook on the Long-term IDRs remains Negative. Fitch has simultaneously affirmed the Short-term foreign currency IDR at 'F2' and the common eurozone Country Ceiling for Slovenia at 'AAA'. KEY RATING DRIVERS The downgrade of Slovenia's sovereign ratings reflects the following key rating factors: - The macroeconomic and fiscal outlook has deteriorated significantly since Fitch's last rating review of the Slovenian sovereign in August 2012. The agency now forecasts a 2% contraction in real GDP in 2013 and a decline of 0.3% in 2014, when Slovenia is expected to be one of only two eurozone economies to contract. Fitch forecasts that the general government deficit (GGD, net of bank recapitalisation costs) will rise to 5% of GDP in 2013 from 4% in 2012, against a target set down in the end-2012 budget law of 2.8%. -
Fitch now projects that a larger GGD than previously expected, a poor macroeconomic outlook, and costs deriving from bank recapitalisation and the issuance of state guarantees for "bad bank" (BAMC) bonds will cause gross general government debt (GGGD) to rise to 72% of GDP in 2013-14, up from 22% in 2008. This compares with a forecast for 2014 of 63% when Fitch last downgraded Slovenia to 'A-'/Negative in August 2012. - There remains a significant divergence between official and Fitch estimates of bank recapitalisation costs. The agency's baseline estimate is that the Slovenian banking sector will necessitate a further capital injection EUR2.8bn (8% of GDP). Of this, the state needs to inject EUR2bn into the three largest (predominantly state-owned) banks. This is more than twice the latest official estimate. However, the latter makes somewhat different assumptions regarding non-performing loan (NPL) coverage; core capital adequacy ratios (CARs) to be targeted; and the deleveraging of banks' balance sheets deriving from asset transfers to the BAMC. Crucially, Fitch believes that NPLs have yet to peak, given the prolonged economic contraction. - The coalition government in power since March 2013 is showing a renewed sense of urgency in addressing bank balance sheet clean-up and structural reforms.
