EUA amarga derrota na Síria. Cercar Rússia ficou mais difícil.
While the world attention is focused on Ukraine, the events in Syria may significantly affect the situation in the Middle East and the world. The forces of Bashar Assad have fully liberated Homs, the third largest city of the country with a population of one million where the uprising started around three years back. According to agreement, about two thousand militants with small arms left the city. They need to be armed to repel possible attacks by Islamic State Iraq and Syria (ISIS) forces which accuse them of treason. In return civilians held as hostages were freed and aid was allowed to get into besieged populated areas. After the agreement expired, the forces leaving the city were attacked by rockets. Many died along with the force commander Abade Rahman. The two army brigades that liberated the city are expected to be re- deployed to the north where a decisive battle for Aleppo is going to start.
The government forces are also successful in Eastern Guta, a Damascus suburb. They have recently received reinforcements from Qalamoun region where the government army has recently held a victory. There is a reason to believe that by the time of presidential election slated for July 3 the government regular forces will have their control established over the area where at least 85% of population lives. Washington has already said the expected victory of Bashar Assad, the leading candidate out of three hopefuls, will be illegitimate because the civil war is raging and the candidates don’t have equal chances. The US stance is not very convincing as it has already recognized as legitimate the presidential election to take place in Ukraine under more or less the same circumstances.
It’s not the only parallel between Syria and Ukraine. The big chessboard game makes them intertwined; no matter they are situated at large distance from each other. Experts believe that to large extent Washington has provoked the Ukrainian crisis trying to evade the humiliating defeat while playing the Syrian game. The Volgograd terror acts were traced to the Islamic militants in Syria (dislocated near Homs). Many expected Russia to intensify support of Damascus and even strike the perpetrators. If this version is correct, the anti-Russian forces coming to power in Kiev were to distract Moscow from what the West was doing to overthrow the Syrian regime, among other things. The planned scenario has totally failed. The US cannot get a free hand in Syria taking advantage of Russia’s involvement in Ukraine. The strategic blunders have led to real zugzwang. Any large-scale intervention in Syria gives Russia an impetus to intensify its efforts in Ukraine. Direct involvement will entail increase of Russian aid to Bashar Assad. He needs much less for victory than the interim government in Kiev which has great expectations which neither the United States, nor Europe are ready to satisfy.
