'Momento Minsk' já chegando: colapso global do valor de ativos, detona bolhas de crédito e dívida.
- EUA, Europa e China : ativos sobrevalorizados cairão.
- Minsk : Quando produtividade sobe menos que carga de juros.
- Modelos baseados em consumo, e não em produtividade.
- Mais parecem a velha URSS, e não economias de mercado.
- Resposta tem sido apenas "enrolar", tocar problema adiante.
The world's three economic superpowers - the U.S., China and Europe - are heading for a major collapse in asset values because their economic models favor consumption instead of productivity, one economist has warned. "We're still not wise enough to realize that our current model is a 'Ponzi' scheme rushing toward its inevitable 'Minsky moment'," Steen Jakobsen, a chief economist at Danish investment bank Saxo Bank, said in a research note on Friday. The term "Minsky moment" refers to a phrase coined for the Asian debt crisis of the late 1990s by Pimco's Paul McCulley. Unsustainable debt will be the cause of the crash, according to Jakobsen, and will occur when the cash returns on assets become insufficient to service the debt taken on to acquire those assets in the first place. He gives no timeframe for his thesis but says that the problem of huge debts has been swept under the carpet by central bankers and policymakers and will come back as low inflation or even deflation.
.Investors and pundits seem to have forgotten that we were promised 2014 would be the end of the crisis. Whatever the timing, the US, China and Europe are all headed for another Minsky moment: the point in debt inflation where the cash generated by assets is insufficient to service the debt taken on to acquire the asset. Anything which is not productivity is consumption of capital.
So, the only way to grow an economy without productivity growth is to do so temporarily through the use of debt – about 75% debt and 25% productivity growth, in this case. Since the 1970s, US productivity growth rates have fallen by 81% – the move onto the internet has ironically made us bigger consumers and less productive. Had we remained at pre-1970s productivity, the US GDP would have been 55% higher and the outstanding debt to GDP would be easily fundable.
