EUA joga última cartada: rachar eixo Russia-Irã, donos do preço do gás. Mas não tem chances.
The US administration is determined to do everything to drive a wedge between Moscow and Tehran. This raises the question of whether there is a real opportunity for strategic convergence between Tehran and Washington to the detriment of the partnership between Russia and Iran? Officially, in reaction to the events in the Ukraine, Tehran did not side with the West against Russia. The US is firmly believed to be the main enemy of both countries.
In this context, the deterioration of the relations between Moscow and Washington could become a certain bonus for Tehran in deepening the cooperation between Russia and Tehran on a bilateral and regional level. Iranians are not happy about possible enlargement of NATO close to Russia’s borders. Ukraine is a testing ground which, if the Kremlin withdraws, may be followed by the states in the South Caucasus and Central Asia. Iranians also see that instead of the promised democracy in the Ukraine the world has witnessed the triumph of radicalism and extremism, even though not Islamic. The Ukraine, relying on the United States, has already lost part of its territory and it is now one step away from a breakup into two and even more pieces. In reality, Tehran is interested in building strategic relations with Russia and has never acted behind its back even when it would have been very profitable for Iran.
A striking example of this is the relatively recent proposal of the Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev during his visit to Tehran to mediate an arrangement on delivery of Iranian gas to Europe bypassing Russia in the context of the Ukrainian crisis. Iran refused flat out saying that it will never sign any contracts with Europe behind Russia’s back and without its consent. Even more so that Russia and Iran have made progress in the negotiations on the supply of Russian goods in exchange for Iranian oil. The total amount of the contract is $20 billion and it covers plans for procurement of 500,000 barrels of Iranian oil per day. Moscow believes that the deal with Iran does not violate the international sanctions imposed against Tehran. Russia only signed the sanctions adopted by the UN Security Council and considers illegal the unilateral restrictions adopted by the United States and the European Union. By doing this, Moscow takes the leverage over Tehran away from the White House and destroys the entire US-backed system of dictating terms to the Iranians. Americans fear exactly this, rather than that the translation will be implemented.
Iran is not only a major oil supplier. The country is estimated to have largest gas reserves in the world and we can build a coalition to prevent such US-controlled actors as Saudi Arabia and Qatar from using illegal unilateral US sanctions for their own advantage. Russia can become a trader for Iranian oil if the US refuses to lift sanctions after the signing of a final agreement with Iran on its nuclear program. And, by creating a Moscow – Tehran gas-axis instead of the failed GECF, the two countries will be able to dictate to Washington and Brussels its conditions in the global gas market, including gas prices. But we must act now taking into account that the US has already begun to implement its new policy toward Russia and Iran.
